Tampa Commercial Real Estate | Florida Commercial Property

Attendees: Eric Odum and Brenda Dohring-Hicks, CEO The Dohring Group and Listing Broker for ENCORE!

Date: July 15, 2010

Subject: Downtown Tampa: ENCORE! Project

A 40+ acre mixed use redevelopment district in Downtown Tampa. ENCORE!’s city within a city concept unites the central business district with Ybor City, Tampa Heights and other neighborhoods.

EO: Good afternoon and welcome to another Market Report from Net Lease Commercial Advisory.  I’m Eric Odum, the principal and broker for Net Least Commercial Advisory in Tampa, FL, and today we have with us Brenda Dohring-Hicks for the Dohring Group.  Welcome Brenda.

BDH: Thanks Eric.

EO: Thank you very much for joining us.  Big news recently.

BDH: Big News!

EO: We have big news that the ENCORE! Project was approved recently and commercial real estate people got very excited, and the city got very excited, but a lot of the city of Tampa didn’t know what it was. Why don’t you just start from the beginning and tell us what the ENCORE! project is.

BDH: ENCORE! Is a brand new mixed use project….probably heard about it in the news the past couple of years as it was being formulated.  We’re going to end up with somewhere in the neighborhood of about 900 residences, residential units in the project, but it’s a mixed use project.  So it has commercial uses, there’s a site for a hotel; there’s a site for an office building, a couple of other commercial sites, one that we have ear-marked for a grocer.

EO: The entire project is on the East side of Downtown Tampa, correct?

BDH: That’s a good way to describe it – it’s on the NE side of Downtown.

EO: The NE side.

BDH: Yeah, people have been looking at maps lately to see where rail is coming in.  That’s where it is.  It’s on the NE side (of Downtown).

EO: Now, your involvement in the project is what?

BDH: We’re the broker responsible with our broker partner, Bill Eshenbaugh.

EO: So, Bill Eshenbaugh, the Dirt Dog.

BDH: The Dirt Dog. So the Dohring Group

EO: Ok

BDH: And as a brokerage firm, we specialize just in urban locations.  So this is what we do.

EO: Got it.

BDH: We reached out to Bill Eshenbaugh because he’s so good at land, and let’s face it, when you’re an urban broker not many opportunities you get to do 40 acres of land in an urban location, so we brought Bill on board and the 2 of us work as brokers.  We co-broke the entire thing.  There are opportunities for other brokers, because we have two things to sell right now.

Number 1, the grocer – we really want to get that grocer in.

Number 2, there was a site that was set up for the Housing Authority for an office building for their use. They have decided to go ahead and put that one up for other commercial use, because we believe the community needs it.

EO: In getting back to the terms of the players – you’ve got Bank of America, who really heads the project. You’re the broker. Who’s the contractor on the deal?

BDH: The contractor is ZMG Construction.  They are out of the Orlando area by home-base. It’s about a 1200 person National, and now International. They just got invited to go down to do some work in Haiti.  They have formed a partnership with Malphus & Son who is a local Tampa contractor.  So, the two of them now have a partnership – ZMG-Malphus.  They are on the street as the contractor which is responsible for hiring all of the subs.

EO: Ok, so you have an external, larger contractor and a local contractor.  And, of course, you and the Dirt Dog are the brokers and the Bank of America is the organizing entity, the driving force.

BDH: Yes, there’s a partnership between Bank of America and the Housing Authority. Bank of America is the managing member of that, but it is a partnership, ok?

EO: Ok, so between the Housing Authority and Bank of America. I heard you mention about multi family. You and I have talked about this in the past. I think a lot of people will be surprised, but there’s no a lot of discussion about….well there are all these towers that don’t have any people in them.  Let’s talk about that a little bit.  Because just north of us two blocks, we have two projects that everybody thinks are completely empty. So, let’s talk about housing in the downtown core.

BDH: Ok, well now, you know, those projects came out….. thank goodness they’re here.  Skypoint 100% sold out, and well occupied.  So, it’s not just sold out to the investors and nobody is living in them.  Many of those investors if they didn’t want to be in this themselves, at least have the spaces leased…The Element was built as a condo project, but luckily was able to go rent them before they sold any.  Its occupancy level is up in the low 80’s.

EO: Low 80’s – not bad for starving.  They’ve only been less than a year on the Certificate of Occupancy.  That’s not bad at all.  A lot of people were surprised to hear that because they just assume that you’ve got vacant buildings downtown and it’s really not true.  So there’s a need for this additional multi family in the ENCORE! Project.

BDH: There’s definitely a need.  The problem in the downtown area is finding affordable housing because it comes very expensive.  As we all know, the land or lack thereof, makes it very pricey.  By this project coming on board and the partnership and because of the basis on how they were able to acquire this land, get grant funding, get very creative funding from different, from the neighborhood stabilization funding, their basis is lower.  So, because of that strength from the financing, they can provide affordable housing.  And that’s going to make them a different player than a Skypoint or an Element is going to be.  So they are going to fill the niche because there are a lot of workers in Downtown, Tampa.  Everybody isn’t an attorney. I know you might find that difficult to believe.

EO: It is hard to believe, most of my office tenants, or clients are attorneys. But, there are other people besides attorneys in Downtown Tampa.  Talk about the transportation situation a little bit.

BDH: They always looked at transportation as an important piece as we started developing this property.  Let’s face it. It has entrance and exits to the Interstate right where it is.  So if nothing else had happened, it would still be good.  The Project is close to bus routes, and its walk able.  There’s no reason – I walk from my office which is what we call down in the core, up to this project all the time.  I don’t like to do it in 95 degree weather, but nonetheless, it’s walk able.  With the high speed rail that is coming in, it’s coming in due East one block from this property.  So, with that high speed rail that comes, what we’re all looking at now is the intermodal transportation piece that will be for Hillsborough County, and connecting….. is your improved bus service, your improved taxi service, your improved walkability to have people have pedestrian access back and forth.

EO: And the agenda that’s coming down the pike with the light rail, that’s going to be on the agenda for the transportation initiative, coming up at the end of the year, correct?

BDH: Correct.

EO: So you’ve got light rail, high speed rail, the regular rubber on road transportation which is all within very short distance from this new…

BDH: Less than a block

EO: Less than a block, so it’s going to be the center of the universe really in terms of Tampa.

BDH: It’s the center. Right now it’s the terminus for the high speed rail, and so everything else is going to emit from it.  So as we walk now.  A big part of this project is the park that has always been there.  There’s a linear park that has always been there.  Affectionately referred to as the “Bro Bowl”… this was the skate park that became very, very famous.  That park is going to be completely redone, so that will remain.  It will be a really nice park.  To the North of that, we’re putting in a Middle School.  This area, when we looked at what it needed, it needed a middle school.  Elementary schools are covered; everything is good, so now we’re going to have a middle school there.  The primary boulevard coming through the project,….. you know, “encore” means ‘yes, let’s do it again, bring back more,’….. The whole project is bringing back Central Park Village, which was a very vibrant part of North Downtown in years past, so we’re bringing that back.  Ray Charles Boulevard is the primary boulevard coming through the place, and the buildings are named things like “The Ella,” “The Fitzgerald,” you know those kinds of names….. “The Trio,” …..So, it’s really going to be the first time we’re going to have what we can call,  “a city inside of a city.”  We’re not alone. There are other cities that were able, but usually it’s something like we saw develop in Channelside, where there was an old industrial sector, and so it’s close enough to the city to be called a city.  But, Channelside has a distinct personality to downtown.  This is DOWNTOWN!

EO: Absolutely.  Now let’s talk about it from the broker standpoint.  Why should brokers pay attention to this project? Is there anything for the local broker community? Is there any way for them to participate?

BDH: Participate by bringing buyers for these parcels, typically about an acre in size, to put up multi family, put up an office, to find that grocer, to find that commercial piece – the new commercial piece is very excited to us because now we don’t have to put a corporate office there. Now we can put something that could be the likes of a drug store, a branch bank, coffee, fast food. There’s a prime opportunity.  Again, bring it back to where the rail is, as well.  So, some of those uses that might not have seemed to fit before because they were on the outskirts of downtown and now are at the epicenter of where all the people are going to be.

EO: In time frame, is this going to be 10 years out, 5 years out, what’s your timeframe for sinking the shovel?

BDH: Well, we’ve already started clearing, so we’re doing the entire infrastructure, and it’s a complete self contained.  This will be a (LEED) Gold status from the infrastructure.  I don’t think that’s been (LEED Gold) from an infrastructure standpoint. So, they’ve got their own water treatment plant, etc., etc.  All of that will be in the ground.  We must, by directive of the funding that we have, have more than 300 to 350 people living in units within 15 months now.

EO: 15 months! WOW! So you’re on roller skates…

BDH: There are a lot of people crawling all over that site right now. And with that, remember, these are mixed use buildings. So, it will be ground level retail. There are anywhere in the neighborhood of about 10,000 square feet per building that will be up and ready for someone to go into with some ready population within the next 15 months.

EO: That’s awesome.  I mean it’s really good for us to see some activity.  The last couple years, commercial real estate’s been tough, and so when  you start to see some new initiatives start to roll around, you start to get the feel that maybe we’re starting to pick up a little bit…. things are starting to move forward in the right direction.

Brenda, I’d really like to thank you for being with me today to explain the ENCORE! Project and hopefully our viewers had a chance to watch and get something out of it.  And, if somebody would like to get in touch, there’s an Encore site and I believe also your website, if you’d like to give us real quick idea how people can get in touch with you about the project.

BDH: Absolutely.  There’s a couple ways to do it.  http://www.DohringGroup.com. You can get a link there, but the best place to go is http://www.EncoreTampa.com.  All the info that I might have in front of me as I’m referring and taking a look is out there.  Information on how to get in touch with us direction is absolutely the best way.

EO: Brenda, thanks again so much, I appreciate you giving me the time.

BDH: You got it.

ERIC ODUM

www.FloridaTripleNet.com

813-514-1070

BRENDA DOHRING-HICKS

www.DohringGroup.com

www.EncoreTampa.com

Discussing SBA 504 Commercial Real Estate Loans

Finding Creative ways to Keep Business Moving in a Tough Economy

EO:      Welcome to another update on the market with Net Lease Commercial Advisory. Again, I’m Eric Odum, Principal at Net Lease Commercial Advisory and today, we have with us Scott Jacobsen who is with – why don’t you introduce yourself…

SJ:        NorthStar Bank, Commercial Banking Manager

EO:      Scott has been a banker in this area for ….gosh Scott, it’s probably been 22, 23 years now?

SJ:        At least…

EO:      So, you’ve been around a little bit and he (Scott) presented me the other day with an opportunity I thought was very interesting in the Commercial Real Estate market in terms of the financing.  Of course, there’s been a lot of discussion about illiquidity in the market.  We have our feelings about illiquidity.  It really has less to do, in my opinion, with the banks and probably more to do with the borrowers.  But, we’re going to talk about a program today that can help on some of those illiquidity issues.  So let’s talk about it.  It’s the Small Business Administration’s 504 Loan Program.  Why is this program a program that people should pay attention to, Scott?

SJ:        The 504 Program’s been around for a long time, as long as I can remember and there are some key components to it which if you don’t know it, is very attractive — One being the 10% equity requirement for the borrower, where most banks typically will require anywhere from 20 to 30% equity.

EO:      That has been going up recently (on traditional commercial loans), right?

SJ:        Yes, that’s been going up – banks are requiring more equity (on traditional loans).  Everybody knows rates are so low today and the SBA rates are very low as well, and the way the program is set up, the SBA takes 50% of the loan amount and actually fixes in a rate, and that rate is in the low 5’s (percent), and they lock that in for 20 years.  So you get a 20 year fixed rate on the SBA’s portion of the loan, which is half of it, and 40% portion of the loan which the bank holds is locked in anywhere from 5 to 10 years.

EO:      So you still have a balloon, its just there’s a smaller portion of the amount that’s going to be subject to the balloon.  The government portion is a 20 year fixed loan which is pretty attractive.  I know dealing with a lot of small business owners when they’re purchasing their property…physicians and lawyers too, their thought is that ‘gosh in 5 years, I don’t know what the interest rate, I want to be a little bit more sure about what my payments are going to be’ and this seems like a really good way to stabilize their payments over that period of time and not worry about the balloon, the adjustment, interest rate, that sort of thing.

EO:      Let’s talk a little bit about who you think might be suited for this type of a product.

SJ:        It can be and For-Profit business that…we’re going to look at underwriting this credit to typical standards, which would be: a business has to be performing well, even in this tough environment, has to be in business for at least 2 or 3 years, has to have a little equity in their balance sheet, and you know, doctors, professionals, manufacturing distributors, they all qualify.  Where this program is really helpful, is if there’s something with the credit that just doesn’t quite get the approval in a traditional manner; the SBA program can push it over the top, because the bank actually at the end of the day, the bank is in at 40% LTV and the SBA is in for 50% so the capital or the equity so that the bank’s first position is very well secured.

EO:      So the SBA is essentially taking away some of the risk of the bank which makes it a more attractive deal for the bank to go ahead and make the loan.

SJ:        Yes, absolutely.

EO:      I think you talked about there was a chiropractor you had worked with…

SJ:        Yes, we had a case here just recently….. we had a Chiropractor that owns a half dozen locations, sorry, leases a half dozen locations throughout Tampa Bay and felt like this was a great time to negotiate those leases to purchase and was a little concerned about putting 20 to 30% equity into the traditional financing and thought this SBA program would be a good avenue for him to acquire those offices, lock in a fixed rate for 20 years for half of it and take some of the risk out of the balloon which you mentioned could sometimes give heartburn to clients when they know there’s going to be a balloon after 5 or 10 years.

EO:      Great!  So let’s talk about in terms of size…can you do this with $10k, can it be $50mil, what are the size requirements?

SJ:        Minimum size is $125k and maximum is $10mil.  So it’s pretty wide – it covers most transactions.

EO:      Most transactions. In Tampa, your typical physician practice was less than $1.5mil. Certainly more than the $125k – it’s going to be right there. I don’t want to make this sound like it’s only for physicians, because of course, you guys have had experience with manufacturing companies and distributors, but it seems to me that the professional practices tend to gravitate toward this more. Maybe that’s because they tend to be more balanced in the Tampa Bay area toward the professional industries.

SJ:        Well particularly if you’re a physician or anybody for that matter – if you’re going to be in your building and be there a long term – one of the requirements is that you have to occupy at least 51% of the space so it’s an owner occupied facility that we’re talking about.  But if you’re going to be there for a while and if you’re going to pay somebody, you might as well pay yourself.

EO:      It’s not a speculative investment then, this is something for owner occupied’s, running their business, has a sound business, has an established business, so that is what this loan program is really all about.  Let’s talk about some of the folks that perhaps can’t get this loan, because we talked about who can. Let’s talk about some who can’t.

SJ:        The ones that jump out at you: If you’re a not-for-profit corporation, you do not qualify, and if it’s real speculative then you wouldn’t qualify either.  Those are really the two big ones, and there are a few other ones: gambling establishments.  You know!  .….the obvious ones that jump out at you.

EO:      Ok, very good.  So, how does this compare with the fees to traditional bank financing?

SJ:        The fees…… the SBA’s got some programs now that they’re reducing fees to make it more attractive for borrowers.  There is a little over a 2% fee on the SBA portion to run it through and so that has to be an embedded cost, so that at the end of the day, if the SBA’s running 20 years on their fixed rate portion at around 5.25% then throw another 2% of closing costs,  you’re going to be somewhere in the 7.5% range all in which is still very, very attractive.

EO:      Then you throw in the balloon-free government portion, the SBA portion of it and it becomes pretty attractive.  So you have the origination fees which are a down side, but then of course you get extended lower rates through the term….. even with the fees included, it’s relatively inexpensive debt.

SJ:        Now, you compare that – it you walked into a bank today and asked for a traditional owner occupied mortgage, putting 20 or 30% down, and look at a 5 year balloon, our rates would be somewhere in that 6.5% range fixed for 5 years, and we’re going to charge anywhere from .5pt to 1pt so your cost is somewhere in that 7 to 7.5% range anyway for 5 years, where you can lock in the SBA portion for almost the same time but for 20 years.

EO:      Great. Terrific.  Well, why don’t we just shift a little bit here and summarize.  In terms of why we want to do this or why we at least want to consider this is

1. the SBA’s guaranteeing it, so you’re able to be perhaps a little bit more aggressive on underwriting than you guys typically would be.
2. It’s only 10% down and the government portion of the debt is for 20 years amortization with no balloon.

So, those are certainly the benefits to it.  People that we’re looking for (the folks you want to try to lend to) they’re going to be anybody with a track record, purchasing real estate, between $125k and $10mil. Is there anything else that I’m leaving out here in terms of summarizing this program?

SJ:        We haven’t really talked about – but there is the opportunity of throwing some of the equipment into the acquisition purchase and roll that into the loan amount. So, if there’s a capital intensive business or any business for that matter, we can roll that cost into the SBA as well as a significant portion of the fees can be rolled into the SBA loan as well.

EO:      Oh, that’s nice.

SJ:        So, there’s some great creative ways to make this worth while, and if you’re a business owner that your in a lease and you have the option to buy out that lease, we’ve seen a lot of activity recently as people recognize it’s a good time to be a value shopper for real estate and if you can lock in these rates for long term, it’s a good time to move on it.

EO:      Good point.  Scott, I’d like to thank you again for taking the time today to talk to us, and hopefully you guys got something out of it.  If anybody wants to get in touch with you Scott, how would they reach you on this program?

SJ:        Call me at 813-549-5030, or you can email me.

EO:      NorthStar Bank is located in the Beer Can building in downtown Tampa.  Again, we appreciate you joining us today and hopefully you got something out of it.  Feel free to contact Scott if you’d like to have more info on the 504 SBA Lending Program. Thank you again, Scott.

SJ:        Thank you, Eric.

Maddux Report Stops Circulation

A mainstay of the Tampa Bay business scene for more than 26 years, the Maddux Business Report has decided to cease further print publication and distribution of its magazine.  From its infancy, the “Maddux Report” was a friend and reliable source for all things happening in commercial real estate development, construction and leasing in the Tampa Bay market place.

Eventually, the magazine expanded to cover a broad scope of news in the business market, but as a commercial real estate broker and lender back in the late 80’s and early 90’s the publication was an important and useful tool for most of my professional life. One did not have to be much of a soothsayer to predict that this day was coming.  Print media across the country has taken a shellacking by news distributed through the Internet.  Compounding with the fact that the area is still in the grips of the worst economic downturn I have witnessed in my lifetime, it was all too much for the magazine to endure.

I will miss the regular recaps on the commercial development market (although permits have been shockingly low for almost 3 years now) and I continue to use the directories for information on developed retail, industrial and office properties around the area.  I know this information is available on Loopnet and CoStar, but call me old school.  I like picking up a piece of paper and flipping through color pages to find the property for which I am looking.

I wish the publishers good luck.  It sounds as if they have some new project on the Internet (http://www.madduxpress.com).  I hope it works for them.  I will miss the service they provided over the years.

A $390 million project to build a toll road connecting Interstate-4 and the Lee Roy Selmon Crosstown Expressway in Tampa is underway. Gov. Charlie Crist and Florida Department of Transportation Secretary Stephanie Kopelousos attended a groundbreaking ceremony Friday. The I-4/ Lee Roy Selmon Crosstown Connector project received $105 million in stimulus funding.

Read more: I-4/Crosstown Connector breaks ground – Tampa Bay Business Journal:

Consruction on the new connector between the Crosstown Expressway and I4 is underway.  I have fielded a number of calls from investors asking if this has created any investment opportunities.  Sure.  There are always opportunites, but I am not sure the Connector creates opportunities as much as the reason for which the Connector is being built.

Allow me to explain.  Ybor City is a walking tourist, retail and entertainment “historic” district.  As the Port of Tampa has continued to expand, so too has traffic through the district.  Because the 39th Street I4 ramp was removed for the recent I4 rennovation, traffic trying to get to I4 has no where to go but up 22nd Avenue, right by the Historic Columbia Restaurant.  Suffice to say, you have to be a brave heart to stand on 22nd Street for any reason, as 40 foot container trucks and tanks of molten sulpher roll up towards the Interstate at breakneck speeds.  No, 22nd Street currently is not a hospitable environment.

With the Connector in place, truck traffic from the Port of Tampa will through-way on the Crosstown to reach I4 and totally avoid Ybor.  Now this is great for quality of life in Ybor.    22nd street will, however, remain very busy, as the entrance ramp at 22nd Street and I4 will remain intact.  I am not sure much will change in Ybor, except pedestrians on 22nd Street will no long feel as if they are standing at the epicenter of a nuclear blast.

What is changing, however, is the Port of Tampa.  Since the Port Authority has added a container port, traffic has quickly reached 100,000 containers per year.  With recent improvements complete, Tampa will be able to handle up to 1,000,000 containers per year, competing with Miami and Fort Lauderdale.  Tampa will remain a port of less than 50 feet in depth, so it will not be able to take the super-sized containers ships that major ports such as Perth Amboy and Riverside currently service, but it will be a very competitive, regional port.  Currently, it is estimated that 500,000 containers reach a final destination somewhere on the I4 corridor.  There is no reason to believe that Port Manatee and the Port of Tampa will not be the final sea destinations of most of that traffic.  Adding to the positive vibes, the widening of the Panama Canal is due to be completed sometime between 2014 and 2015, making the transport of goods to and from Eastern markets directly to Tampa a real option (actually there is a direct China route out of Tampa now).

Having personally witnessed the explosion of trade in Miami in the early 90’s, I can tell you the addition of warehouse space in the area was staggering.  Will Tampa experience that type of business development in trade?  I am not sure, but even if we received a portion of the trade that is being projected, the development and growth environment will be robust and will create plenty of economic opportunities for a community thirsting for some type of activity to augment its depressed real estate, construction and related industries. I would expect the warehouse and industrial environment in and around US 41 will look very different (and more substantial) ten years from now than what it is today.

It did not come as much of a surprise when GunnAllen Financial, Inc. finally closed its doors for business today. Regulators had been digging around the firm looking for net capitalization violations after Chairman John Sykes abruptly left at the end of the last year.   With Sykes’ exit, the writing was on the wall that the firm’s future was in question and brokers began to leave the firm.

5002 West Waters Av

The real estate story behind GunnAllen is quite interesting.  An affiliated entity purchased the building at 5002 West Waters in 2004 for $9.5m and leased the building to GunnAllen.  The property had originally been owned by financially troubled Tropical Sportswear and the transaction was considered a distressed asset sale.  A parking garage was added to the property and it was sold 2 years later at the top of the market for $7.4m, or $2.1m LESS than the original sale.  A new lease agreement with GunnAllen was executed with the new owners.

GunnAllen management believed it would need the 117,000 sq ft property to accommodate its expansion plans.   When the stock market imploded, the property became an albatross for the company, whose profits were heavily tied to the market.  Management had been attempting to reduce costs associated with the build by either subleasing unused portions of the property or vacating the property entirely.

Regardless of the circumstances, Tampa will now have an estimated 400 additional unemployed people and 117,000 sq feet of office space on the market.  The property will be a challenge to market.  It is a Class A building, but the surrounding area is really better suited for light industrial or transportation, rather than an office fit for a white shoe law firm.  There is a significant common area load on the building making it best suited for a single tenant, unless the price is at a significant discount to factor in the common area charge.

From the Marcus & Millichap’s latest Retail Research Report Via the Tampa Bay Business Journal:

Forecasts included in the local report:

• Employers will cut another 4,000 positions this year. That’s an improvement over the 50,700 jobs lost in 2009.

•Asking rents are forecast to drop 3.1 percent to $13.78 per square foot, while effective rents will fall 6 percent to $11.71 per square foot. That compares to asking rents of $14.41 per square foot in 2009 and effective rents of $12.79 per square foot.

• Investors will find opportunities in operationally challenged centers in heavily populated Hillsborough and Pinellas counties. Prices have dropped low enough for investors to attempt turnarounds.

Click here for the complete story.

The retail vacancy rate in Tampa Bay shopping centers has grown to 10.5 percent or enough empty space to fill International Plaza about 10 times.

Yet while retail rents continue declining to an average of about $15 a square foot, down from $16.53 last summer, industry experts think Florida’s retail space glut has peaked, consumer spending is beginning to come back and rents are stabilizing.

Click here for entire story from the St Pete Times….

I wandered over to the Hillsborough County-City Planning Commission’s site this afternoon to download the latest report on commercial construction activity. It probably should shock no one that the activity in the area dropped 40.85% year over year to 42 total starts from 71 total starts in Q4 2008 (Can you even consider 43 starts a pulse?). Offices starts was the only sector that showed an increase while warehousing was basically non-existent at 3 total starts.

For kicks and giggles, I went back to check out what was happening at the peak of the market. In Q4 2005, there were 201 starts with retail leading the way with 89 total starts. In comparison, Q4 retail 2009 revealed only 12 retail starts, an eye popping 86.5% decrease.  The magnitude of the collapse in activity is nothing short of stunning.  Anyone that is living it, though, is probably not the least bit shocked.

2009Q4_sdedit

I attended the Distressed Real Estate Summit in Tampa yesterday.  Although, my commercial real estate activity has picked up in the last few months and I seem to be eternally “busy,” it is always good to break away and hear what some of my peers are working on these days.

“Distressed assets” is the buzz term used for all properties that would probably not be underwritten if they were brought to the market today.  Ground Zero of the distressed assets crisis was in the residential, residential securities (i.e. Residential Mortgage Backed Securities – RMBS) and Sub-Prime markets in 2008.  The commercial real estate market always seems to lag the residential markets and this downturn is no exception.  Unless you are Rip Van Winkle and just awoke from a great slumber, it would be hard for you to escape the avalanche of negative media about commercial real estate becoming the next financial Armageddon.  I personally, see the stress cracks in the market and anecdotally see individual assets implode, one after another, but I am far from sitting in the Armageddon camp.  I do think it is different this time.  I have expressed these views in other articles, if you are interested, but I won’t bore you with repetition.

Almost every time I attend these industry events, I am able to take away nuggets here and there that will help me help my clients.  The Summit was broken in to four parts.  I will try to give you a few of my own personal highlights of each section, as I saw them:

1.  Evaluating Commercial Properties and Partially Complete Construction: Land, Office, Retail and Industrial

Panelists: Bill Eshenbaugh, Eshenbaugh Land Company

Ed Kobel, DeBartolo Development

Chet Little, Foley & Laudner, LP

Doug Dieck, Ryan Companies US, Inc

Kobel’s Comments on demographics:

• Infill and Urban migration will be keys to the next commercial real estate development trends
• Boomers prefer a walking lifestyle and want to experience their golden years socializing with other people.  They want less stress in maintaining properties. That means they will largely exit residential suburbs and exurbs in favor of urban living arrangements.
• Generation Y, Z, Echo’s etc. will be forced to move in to Urban areas as gas prices will push through $5/gallon within the next decade.
• Light rail and public transportation will be keys and infill development will offer investment opportunities around station outlets
• Believes that “gap in equity” over the next 3-5 years with maturing CMBS debt will mean the brakes will be applied to real estate for the next 3-5 years, which he believes is the minimum time necessary to work through most of the distressed assets currently on or coming to market.

2.  Adding Value to Distressed Assets

Panelists: Ron Weaver,  Stearns, Weaver, Miller, Weissler, Alhadeff and Sitterson, PA

Todd Pressman, Chairman of the SWFWMD Governing Board

William Stanton, BB&T

Stanton on the banks’ position on handling troubled assets:

• If the borrower is paying insurance, taxes, some interest on the property, and the bank is upside down, the bank is much more apt to work with the borrower, than foreclose.
• In the past, the bank ordered an appraisal and if necessary, required the borrower to add equity or risk having the bank force the loan out of the bank or worse yet, face foreclosure.Transparency has become the key word for banks now.  If the borrowers are willing to disclose and be forthright with the bank, the bank will be much more willing to avoid aggressive adverse action against the borrower and property.
• The banks realize the problem is so large that they can not possibly handle all the problem loans if the situation is handled in the similar fashion in which they were handled back in the early 90’s.
• The RTC is not coming back.  The vibe is completely different this time around.  The Loss Share Agreement with BBT/Colonial has more years left and the FDIC does not have appetite to attack the problem loans like they have in the past, as it is still reeling from other losses and bank closures.

Pressman, on the topic of government budget cuts:

• If you think the delay for permits is bad now, just wait.  With all the financial cut backs recently, government has cut bone.  There will be serious log jams in permitting when the economy starts to turn around.

3.  Legal Strategies for Distressed and Foreclosed Projects

Panelists: Leigh Kellet Fletcher – Stearns, Weaver, Miller, Weissler, Alhadeff and Sitterson

Stephen Cunningham – LandQwest Commercial, LLC

Kristopher Fernandez, Attorney

Kellet-Fletcher:

• Changes in Storm water rules make entitlement on infill or reworked properties particularly risky
• On Community Development District Bonds (CDD’s)
  • Banks are hesitating on foreclosing. Why should they take foreclosure action when the CDD will follow them shortly to foreclose on the bank?
  • CDD’s have superior positions to all debt except IRS debt
  • “Oppenheimer (large owners of CDD’s) is going to own A LOT of Florida real estate”

4.  Transportation’s Impact on Future Development Opportunities

Panelists: Mayor Pam Iorio

Hills Co. Commissioner Mark Sharpe

Sharp & Iorio on light rail:

• Passionately spoke about the fact that Tampa loses business to other cities because it has one of the worst public transportation systems in the country
• Cited the example of TIA-CREF, the large financial services firm, that moved its operations to Charlotte, because Tampa had limited transportation infrastructure
• Sharpe feels like he is fighting an unwinnable fight in the world of economic development without a public transportation system.
• Is proposing a Sales Tax referendum to increase sales tax 1 penny to pay for light rail system
• The first leg of rail will run from downtown to USF, followed by downtown to Westshore, TIA and Westchase in that order
• Was asked if a sales tax is the best way to raise funds, because it is a regressive tax, hurts retailers most, and is punitive to property owners, and is counter-intuitive to building an environment of pro-business.  His response was that we could not achieve light rail without a new source of funding.  Cutting waste in government is not an option and would not generate enough funds to achieve their goals.
• Recognizes it is not a good time to be asking for money, but passionately believes that light rail will make us more efficient stewards of business, education and the environment
• They were asked why we should invest in light rail if less than 2% of population would use it on any given day.  Sharpe’s response was that there are few roads in Hillsborough County that carry 2% of the county’s population, and there are no tolls to pay for these roads, yet we build and maintain the roads for the good of the entire county. Light rail is no different, except there is fee to use the system and light rail can carry many times more people, much more efficiently than the current car and road system.

Its not terribly surprising that the University of Florida’s assessment of the 4th Quarter 2010 real estate market is largely unchanged from the previous quarter.  Market professionals continue to express concern about stagnant financial markets and rising unemployment in the state.  Here is a summary of the Tampa Bay Area commercial markets:

• Cap rates increased over the past quarter across most property types, with the largest changes occurring in Warehouse (+0.31% change) and Office: Class A (+0.26% change). The largest negative changes occur in Condo Conversions (-6.30% change) and Free Standing Retail (-0.67% change).

• Cap rate outlooks indicate that rates are expected to be mixed across most property types in the next quarter. The strongest indication of a cap rate increase occurs in Office: Class A.

• Required yields for Tampa-St. Petersburg are higher, on average, than that of the state, 14.36% compared to 13.32% statewide.

• Required yields are highest for Condo Conversion at 20.7% and lowest for Free Standing Retail at 11.3%.

• Required yields increased across all but three property types last quarter. The largest shifts in required yields occurred in Condo Conversions (+1.61% change) and Office: Class B (+1.49% change).

• The investment outlook is mixed across property types, with the most positive outlook occurring in Warehouse and Distribution and Apartments.

• The outlook for Land Development appears to be neutral to negative for all land classifications.

• Future occupancy rates are expected to be mixed for a majority of property types.

• Rental rates are expected to increase slower than inflation across almost all property types over the next quarter.

Click here to to see the complete report.