Attendees: Eric Odum and Brenda Dohring-Hicks, CEO The Dohring Group and Listing Broker for ENCORE!

Date: July 15, 2010

Subject: Downtown Tampa: ENCORE! Project

A 40+ acre mixed use redevelopment district in Downtown Tampa. ENCORE!’s city within a city concept unites the central business district with Ybor City, Tampa Heights and other neighborhoods.

EO: Good afternoon and welcome to another Market Report from Net Lease Commercial Advisory.  I’m Eric Odum, the principal and broker for Net Least Commercial Advisory in Tampa, FL, and today we have with us Brenda Dohring-Hicks for the Dohring Group.  Welcome Brenda.

BDH: Thanks Eric.

EO: Thank you very much for joining us.  Big news recently.

BDH: Big News!

EO: We have big news that the ENCORE! Project was approved recently and commercial real estate people got very excited, and the city got very excited, but a lot of the city of Tampa didn’t know what it was. Why don’t you just start from the beginning and tell us what the ENCORE! project is.

BDH: ENCORE! Is a brand new mixed use project….probably heard about it in the news the past couple of years as it was being formulated.  We’re going to end up with somewhere in the neighborhood of about 900 residences, residential units in the project, but it’s a mixed use project.  So it has commercial uses, there’s a site for a hotel; there’s a site for an office building, a couple of other commercial sites, one that we have ear-marked for a grocer.

EO: The entire project is on the East side of Downtown Tampa, correct?

BDH: That’s a good way to describe it – it’s on the NE side of Downtown.

EO: The NE side.

BDH: Yeah, people have been looking at maps lately to see where rail is coming in.  That’s where it is.  It’s on the NE side (of Downtown).

EO: Now, your involvement in the project is what?

BDH: We’re the broker responsible with our broker partner, Bill Eshenbaugh.

EO: So, Bill Eshenbaugh, the Dirt Dog.

BDH: The Dirt Dog. So the Dohring Group

EO: Ok

BDH: And as a brokerage firm, we specialize just in urban locations.  So this is what we do.

EO: Got it.

BDH: We reached out to Bill Eshenbaugh because he’s so good at land, and let’s face it, when you’re an urban broker not many opportunities you get to do 40 acres of land in an urban location, so we brought Bill on board and the 2 of us work as brokers.  We co-broke the entire thing.  There are opportunities for other brokers, because we have two things to sell right now.

Number 1, the grocer – we really want to get that grocer in.

Number 2, there was a site that was set up for the Housing Authority for an office building for their use. They have decided to go ahead and put that one up for other commercial use, because we believe the community needs it.

EO: In getting back to the terms of the players – you’ve got Bank of America, who really heads the project. You’re the broker. Who’s the contractor on the deal?

BDH: The contractor is ZMG Construction.  They are out of the Orlando area by home-base. It’s about a 1200 person National, and now International. They just got invited to go down to do some work in Haiti.  They have formed a partnership with Malphus & Son who is a local Tampa contractor.  So, the two of them now have a partnership – ZMG-Malphus.  They are on the street as the contractor which is responsible for hiring all of the subs.

EO: Ok, so you have an external, larger contractor and a local contractor.  And, of course, you and the Dirt Dog are the brokers and the Bank of America is the organizing entity, the driving force.

BDH: Yes, there’s a partnership between Bank of America and the Housing Authority. Bank of America is the managing member of that, but it is a partnership, ok?

EO: Ok, so between the Housing Authority and Bank of America. I heard you mention about multi family. You and I have talked about this in the past. I think a lot of people will be surprised, but there’s no a lot of discussion about….well there are all these towers that don’t have any people in them.  Let’s talk about that a little bit.  Because just north of us two blocks, we have two projects that everybody thinks are completely empty. So, let’s talk about housing in the downtown core.

BDH: Ok, well now, you know, those projects came out….. thank goodness they’re here.  Skypoint 100% sold out, and well occupied.  So, it’s not just sold out to the investors and nobody is living in them.  Many of those investors if they didn’t want to be in this themselves, at least have the spaces leased…The Element was built as a condo project, but luckily was able to go rent them before they sold any.  Its occupancy level is up in the low 80’s.

EO: Low 80’s – not bad for starving.  They’ve only been less than a year on the Certificate of Occupancy.  That’s not bad at all.  A lot of people were surprised to hear that because they just assume that you’ve got vacant buildings downtown and it’s really not true.  So there’s a need for this additional multi family in the ENCORE! Project.

BDH: There’s definitely a need.  The problem in the downtown area is finding affordable housing because it comes very expensive.  As we all know, the land or lack thereof, makes it very pricey.  By this project coming on board and the partnership and because of the basis on how they were able to acquire this land, get grant funding, get very creative funding from different, from the neighborhood stabilization funding, their basis is lower.  So, because of that strength from the financing, they can provide affordable housing.  And that’s going to make them a different player than a Skypoint or an Element is going to be.  So they are going to fill the niche because there are a lot of workers in Downtown, Tampa.  Everybody isn’t an attorney. I know you might find that difficult to believe.

EO: It is hard to believe, most of my office tenants, or clients are attorneys. But, there are other people besides attorneys in Downtown Tampa.  Talk about the transportation situation a little bit.

BDH: They always looked at transportation as an important piece as we started developing this property.  Let’s face it. It has entrance and exits to the Interstate right where it is.  So if nothing else had happened, it would still be good.  The Project is close to bus routes, and its walk able.  There’s no reason – I walk from my office which is what we call down in the core, up to this project all the time.  I don’t like to do it in 95 degree weather, but nonetheless, it’s walk able.  With the high speed rail that is coming in, it’s coming in due East one block from this property.  So, with that high speed rail that comes, what we’re all looking at now is the intermodal transportation piece that will be for Hillsborough County, and connecting….. is your improved bus service, your improved taxi service, your improved walkability to have people have pedestrian access back and forth.

EO: And the agenda that’s coming down the pike with the light rail, that’s going to be on the agenda for the transportation initiative, coming up at the end of the year, correct?

BDH: Correct.

EO: So you’ve got light rail, high speed rail, the regular rubber on road transportation which is all within very short distance from this new…

BDH: Less than a block

EO: Less than a block, so it’s going to be the center of the universe really in terms of Tampa.

BDH: It’s the center. Right now it’s the terminus for the high speed rail, and so everything else is going to emit from it.  So as we walk now.  A big part of this project is the park that has always been there.  There’s a linear park that has always been there.  Affectionately referred to as the “Bro Bowl”… this was the skate park that became very, very famous.  That park is going to be completely redone, so that will remain.  It will be a really nice park.  To the North of that, we’re putting in a Middle School.  This area, when we looked at what it needed, it needed a middle school.  Elementary schools are covered; everything is good, so now we’re going to have a middle school there.  The primary boulevard coming through the project,….. you know, “encore” means ‘yes, let’s do it again, bring back more,’….. The whole project is bringing back Central Park Village, which was a very vibrant part of North Downtown in years past, so we’re bringing that back.  Ray Charles Boulevard is the primary boulevard coming through the place, and the buildings are named things like “The Ella,” “The Fitzgerald,” you know those kinds of names….. “The Trio,” …..So, it’s really going to be the first time we’re going to have what we can call,  “a city inside of a city.”  We’re not alone. There are other cities that were able, but usually it’s something like we saw develop in Channelside, where there was an old industrial sector, and so it’s close enough to the city to be called a city.  But, Channelside has a distinct personality to downtown.  This is DOWNTOWN!

EO: Absolutely.  Now let’s talk about it from the broker standpoint.  Why should brokers pay attention to this project? Is there anything for the local broker community? Is there any way for them to participate?

BDH: Participate by bringing buyers for these parcels, typically about an acre in size, to put up multi family, put up an office, to find that grocer, to find that commercial piece – the new commercial piece is very excited to us because now we don’t have to put a corporate office there. Now we can put something that could be the likes of a drug store, a branch bank, coffee, fast food. There’s a prime opportunity.  Again, bring it back to where the rail is, as well.  So, some of those uses that might not have seemed to fit before because they were on the outskirts of downtown and now are at the epicenter of where all the people are going to be.

EO: In time frame, is this going to be 10 years out, 5 years out, what’s your timeframe for sinking the shovel?

BDH: Well, we’ve already started clearing, so we’re doing the entire infrastructure, and it’s a complete self contained.  This will be a (LEED) Gold status from the infrastructure.  I don’t think that’s been (LEED Gold) from an infrastructure standpoint. So, they’ve got their own water treatment plant, etc., etc.  All of that will be in the ground.  We must, by directive of the funding that we have, have more than 300 to 350 people living in units within 15 months now.

EO: 15 months! WOW! So you’re on roller skates…

BDH: There are a lot of people crawling all over that site right now. And with that, remember, these are mixed use buildings. So, it will be ground level retail. There are anywhere in the neighborhood of about 10,000 square feet per building that will be up and ready for someone to go into with some ready population within the next 15 months.

EO: That’s awesome.  I mean it’s really good for us to see some activity.  The last couple years, commercial real estate’s been tough, and so when  you start to see some new initiatives start to roll around, you start to get the feel that maybe we’re starting to pick up a little bit…. things are starting to move forward in the right direction.

Brenda, I’d really like to thank you for being with me today to explain the ENCORE! Project and hopefully our viewers had a chance to watch and get something out of it.  And, if somebody would like to get in touch, there’s an Encore site and I believe also your website, if you’d like to give us real quick idea how people can get in touch with you about the project.

BDH: Absolutely.  There’s a couple ways to do it.  http://www.DohringGroup.com. You can get a link there, but the best place to go is http://www.EncoreTampa.com.  All the info that I might have in front of me as I’m referring and taking a look is out there.  Information on how to get in touch with us direction is absolutely the best way.

EO: Brenda, thanks again so much, I appreciate you giving me the time.

BDH: You got it.

ERIC ODUM

www.FloridaTripleNet.com

813-514-1070

BRENDA DOHRING-HICKS

www.DohringGroup.com

www.EncoreTampa.com

Bubba the Love Sponge Starting a Studio in Tampa?

On February 26, 2010 Bubba the Love Sponge, formerly known as Todd Clem, purchased 5021 W Nassau Street in Tampa, Florida by the Westshore Business District.  Bubba is a radio shock jock currently working with Howard Stern on Sirius “Howard 101.”

Mr. Sponge plans on turning the 2 story warehouse in to the new home of Bubba the Love Sponge radio studios.

The 8,400 sq ft structure was purchased for $605,000

*

Chris Simms

Chris Simms Takes a Beating on Sale of Home

On April 14, 2010, ex-Tampa Bay Buccaneer Quarterback Chris Simms and his wife Danielle sold their Harbour Island home in Tampa, Fl for $1.15 million.  The house was purchased in 2006 for $1.75 million.  No one can hide from the downturn in housing prices.  I wonder if Mr. Simms has decided to rent his home in Nashville instead.

My thoughts and prayers go out to the family and loved ones.

Fallen Hero Escort Route

THURSDAY, February 04, 2010

1400 hrs: Marine Sgt. Daniel M. Angus  arrives at MacDill Air Force Base

1430 hrs. (approximate): Escort departs MacDill AFB

• Escort proceeds North on Bayshore Boulevard to
• East on Platt Street Bridge to
• North on Florida Avenue to
• East on Jackson Street to
• North on Jefferson Street to
• East on Twiggs Street to
• Channelside Drive to
• East on SR 60 to
• South on Kings Avenue to
• West on Lumsden Road to

• South on Providence Road to

• Serenity Meadows Funeral Home

(6919 Providence Road
Riverview, FL 33578-4528)

Well, not much has changed.  As I move (ungracefully, I might add) in to middle age, as a Commercial Real Estate Broker, I still love looking at and searching for that number or statistic that might provide a clue as to where we are headed before the economic data tells us where we have been.  I recently found this tool on Google Finance.  It allows you to track relative Google searches in specific sectors of the economy.  It does not track the specific number of searches, but rather those searches in relation to the entire Google network.

Here is a graph in relation to real estate searches:

A couple of things jump out, besides the fact that relative real estate searches have decreased substantially since the peak of the real estate bubble.  Relative searches for real estate drop off the face of the earth after the first week of August.   Unsurprisingly, this reveals to me the disproportionate number of look-ups for residential real estate as compared to commercial.  The number of real estate sales are skewed to the residential side and residential sales taper off after school starts in August.  Commercial sales tend to follow economic trends and year end tax selling or buying, rather than when little Johnny or Sally start school.  (I won’t even get in to the fact that most of the commercial real estate industry has been dragged kicking and screaming in to the Internet age, and in the CRE world, the Internet still has not gained even a fraction of the traction compared to that the residential real estate world.)

But, we can absolutely deduct that there is some correlation between the residential and commercial markets.  It is easy to reason that if residential buyers are out looking for second homes, newer homes or investment homes, there will also be a spill over in to interest in commercial investment properties (strip centers, single tenant net-lease deals, multi-family, etc).  The two types of sales are not necessarily mutually exclusive and completely detached from one another.

Anyway the point is, if Google reports a relative increase in real estate related searches, it is reasonable to draw a conclusion that sales of real estate will in all likelihood follow.  And, if it is an accurate assumption, Google may be one of the leading indicators of real estate sales and activities.  I will revisit this tool over the next several quarters and see if there is in fact any correlation.

I would also love to see Google tweak this tool.  You can make comparative graphs on the tool currently, if there is a corresponding Google symbol for the subject data.  But, it would be nice to break out commercial real estate against residential.  It would also be nice to break out the commercial real estate sectors (such as retail, industrial, etc.) or regions (Miami or Orlando, versus the Tampa Bay area commercial real estate markets) and to my knowledge there are currently no symbols to identify these data descriptors.

Tampa-St Petersburg

• Cap rates in the Tampa-St. Petersburg area are, on average, higher (0.32 percentage points) than that of the state, and range from 8.5% (Apartments) to 16.4% (Condo Conversion).

• Cap rates increased over the past quarter across most property types, with the largest changes occurring in Condo Conversion (+6.92% change) and Free Standing Retail (+0.74% change).

• Cap rate outlooks indicate that rates are expected to either remain the same across most property types in the next quarter. The strongest indication of a cap rate increase occurs in Flex Space.

• Required yields for Tampa-St. Petersburg are higher, on average, than that of the state, 13.62% compared to 12.75% statewide.

• Required yields are highest for Condo Conversion at 19.1% and lowest for Free Standing Retail at 11.6%.

• Required yields decreased across all but two property types last quarter. The largest shifts in required yields occurred in Condo Conversion (-3.31% change) and Warehouse and Distribution (-2.18% change).

• The investment outlook is mixed across property types, with the most positive outlook occurring in Warehouse and Distribution and Neighborhood Centers.

• The outlook for Land Development appears to be neutral to negative for all land classifications.

• Future occupancy rates are expected to be the same or decrease over the next quarter for the majority of property types. The strongest indications of occupancy rate decreases occur in Strip Centers and Large Retail.

• Rental rates are expected to increase slower than inflation across almost all property types over the next quarter.

• Future absorption rate expectations are neutral for both Condominium Development and Single Family.

• Future price increases are expected to occur at a rate that is slower than inflation for both Single Family and Condominium Development.

Click here for  the entire report from the Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies.

Moderating fundamentals, tighter underwriting and rising cap rates have kept many investors on the sidelines, the report said.

Retail sales have fallen sharply due to a decline in employment, states the report. Specifically, a loss of 33,000 jobs in the Tampa Bay area in the first nine months of the year is cited for a 6 percent decline in retail sales.

For Complete Story on Tampa’s Retail Real Estate Market (3rd Quarter)

Exerpts from the above referenced article:

“….But commercial real estate can’t seem to shake its perception as “the next shoe to drop.”

If value write-downs by the country’s two largest pension funds are any indication, the other shoe has already dropped.

California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) wrote its real estate holdings down by 35.8 percent as of March 31. The California State Teachers’ Retirement System (CalSTRS) wrote down its holdings by 43 percent for the fiscal year that ended June 30.

The combination of huge real estate value decreases with the surge in the stock market leaves both pension funds under-allocated for real estate.

Translation: Even though CalPERS and CalSTRS just absorbed enormous losses in real estate, they now need to focus on making new real estate acquisitions at a time when many buyers are on the sidelines.”

“…This trend should actually help increase the volume of real estate transactions at a time when investment sales are absolutely anemic.”

“….One industry insider coined the phrase, “a rolling loan gathers no loss,” which aptly describes current banking protocol where it makes more sense to extend loans rather than push borrowers into default at maturity.”

Commentary:  We have heard overwhelmingly from the press that commercial real estate is doomed.   I found the above referenced article contrarian to current popular opinion.    Not mentioned in this article, is the billions of dollars that are stacking up on the sidelines from vulture funds planning on buying prized assets at pennies on the dollar, which could potential prevent the bottom dropping out of the market, as many predict will happen.  Commercial real estate investment may still end up becoming a financial  apocalypse, but there will be forces acting in the opposite direction of the predicted collapse.  One thing that I have learned over my career in financial services and real estate is that when the majority predicts a certain outcome to a situation, rarely does the prediction actually play out as planned.